Ford and GM to Surpass Tesla in EV Marketshare by 2025: Analyst

One analyst is predicting General Motors (GM) and Ford to overtake Tesla’s electric vehicle (EV) market share in the coming years, as competition and new models continue to increase.

Senior Auto Analyst John Murphy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch says he’s expecting GM and Ford to each have around 15 percent of the EV market share by 2025, and to overtake Tesla’s position in the industry, according to Automotive News.

Murphy also said he expects Tesla to drop from its current market share of 70 percent to just 11 percent by 2025, as stated in a yearly study entitled “Car Wars”.

As to why, Murphy points to the strength of new pickup EVs such as the F-150 Lightning Pro and the soon-to-come Chevy Silverado EV — both of which he thinks will represent around a 10 percent market share jump from current figures.

In a statement at an Automotive Press Association event, Murphy said, “That dominance Tesla’s had in the EV market, particularly in the U.S., is done.” Murphy continued, “It’s going to shift wildly in the opposite direction in the next four years.”

Another analyst from Morgan Stanley said that he expects Tesla’s revenue to exceed those of both Ford and GM’s by 2027 earlier this year, citing the company’s currently dominant market share.

It’s unclear if legacy automakers will be able to scale up production for their electric vehicles. The Wall Street Journal reported GM is only able to make 12 Hummer EVs per day, despite a waiting list of 77,000 orders.