Photo: Ark Invest
Ark Invest expects Tesla’s shares to shoot up to $4,600 by 2026 in expected value, based on the firm’s open-source Tesla model, according to a post on the company’s website.
The firm’s Monte Carlo model is open-source to the public because it “strengthens the quality of [its] research,” allowing others to see and react to the evaluations.
The model also depicts a bear case price target of $2,900 by 2026, for which the firm says there is a 25 percent probability the shares are at this level or lower. The bull case is set at $5,800 by 2026, with a 25% chance of the latter happening says ARK.
Photo: Ark Invest
In the report, Ark Invest says a “key driver” for Tesla’s growth will be the robotaxi business — which Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed is in the works earlier this month.
The model also produced example outcomes for both bull and bear cases on Tesla, saying that Tesla’s average selling price could come down to $30,000 per car in a bull case, or as much as $38,000 in a bear case.
Additionally, the example outcomes predict as much as $486 billion in revenue from ride-hailing in a bull case, or as little as $51 billion in a bear case — both of which are more than the $0 Tesla makes today on this product.
Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood bought the dip on Tesla as recently as January, with the automaker remaining the firm’s largest holding.
