Tesla to ‘Handily Exceed’ 500,000 Delivery Goal Says Wedbush Analyst

Tesla (TSLA) has a real shot at reaching its goal of 500,000 deliveries in 2020, and with only a couple of days left, we’ll know shortly enough whether it did or not.

According to a note published Wednesday by Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, Tesla will likely reach its goal of half a million 2020 deliveries, as reported by Market Watch. This milestone, if reached, will be thanks to its strength in China and a late push in the European and U.S. market, claims Ives.

In the note, Ives wrote, “Based on our initial analysis of demand and the delivery trajectory globally for Tesla in 4Q, it appears Musk & Co. will likely handily exceed Street and internal expectations.”

Yesterday, Tesla announced cars being delivered in the final three days of 2020 would get a free 3-month trial for the Autopilot Full Self-Driving add-on.

Ives continued to say, “Heading into year-end and 2021, we are seeing a major inflection of EV demand globally with our expectations that EV vehicles ramp from ~3% of total auto sales today to 10% by 2025. We believe this demand dynamic will disproportionately benefit the clear EV category leader Tesla over the next few years especially in the key China region which we believe could represent ~40% of its EV deliveries by 2022 given the current brisk pace of sales.”

While California-based Tesla faces direct competition from Chinese EV startups like NIO, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, and others yet, Ives believes the company is well-poised coming out of 2020. The company’s Model 3 isn’t likely to see any more price cuts, but this may not make much of a dent in the company’s sales.

Whether Tesla can reach half a million deliveries within the next few days is unclear. What is clear, however, is that either way, Tesla’s coming out swinging in 2021.