SpaceX Puts Flight 15 Ship-Catch Odds at 50-60% After Flight 14

SpaceX Starship catch hardware at Starbase. Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk said at the All-In Summit that Starship Flight 14 will be the last mission before SpaceX tries to catch the ship, and that Flight 15 is the planned catch attempt if Flight 14 goes well. Speaking alongside SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell on the All-In stage in Los Angeles, he put the odds of that first ship catch at “at least 50 or 60 percent.”

The All-In Summit is the annual conference run by the hosts of the All-In podcast (Chamath, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and Friedberg); this year’s event ran September 13-15, 2026 in Los Angeles.

“We’ve got Flight 14 coming up of Starship, and this will be the last flight before we attempt to catch the ship. So if this flight goes well, then on Flight 15 we will try to catch the ship,” Musk said. Advanced Television’s same-day write-up matches that All-In session language and pairs it with his debris concern: SpaceX is most worried about a breakup over land that could rain debris on people, which is why an extra confirmation flight sits ahead of the catch try.

That timeline now sits next to the FAA’s current airspace plan. The FAA lists a September 22 Flight 14 window, which is the public schedule context for the mission Musk called the last before a ship catch. Hardware work around Starbase has already included Mechazilla catch rehearsals tied to later flight hardware.

Musk also said that once SpaceX can re-fly the ship, it will have made the first fully reusable orbital rocket, with rapid reusability framed as extremely likely early next year. Treat the 50-60 percent figure as his on-stage estimate for the first catch attempt, not a guarantee, and keep Flight 14’s FAA window and SpaceX stack readiness as the near-term gates before any Flight 15 catch talk becomes operational.