SpaceX already dominates the global rocket launch market, and Elon Musk says the company’s share is only going to grow.
According to a recent market share report, SpaceX launched 88.5% of all satellites in Q2 2025, while handling 86% of the total weight delivered to orbit worldwide. China’s CASC came in a distant second, managing more launches by weight than all other providers combined once SpaceX was excluded.
On X, Musk reacted to the report by saying, “Once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, then SpaceX will probably deliver >95% of total Earth payload to orbit, despite others, especially China, continuing to grow. In 2027, maybe as high as 98%.”
That timeline lines up with SpaceX’s ramp-up of Starship V3. The company plans to begin heavy Starship flights in 2026, with V3 designed for higher performance and in-orbit refueling. One of the big milestones for SpaceX next year will also be the company’s first attempt to catch a returning Starship, something Musk confirmed is slated for 2026.
SpaceX recently requested FAA clearance for trajectory changes as it prepares to start launching Starship V3, including adjustments to both launch and return profiles that could pave the way for orbital refueling and future catch operations.
With Starship expected to carry far larger payloads than Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy, the rocket is key to SpaceX pushing its market dominance even further. Starship V3 will serve as the company’s workhorse for satellite launches and eventually crewed missions, with Starship V4 planned for 2027.
If Musk’s projection holds true, SpaceX could control as much as 95–98% of all mass delivered to orbit within just a couple of years, an unprecedented level of dominance in the history of spaceflight.
