Just a few years ago, analysts, forecasting agencies, and auto manufacturers could hardly envision a scenario where electric vehicles (EVs) moved beyond being a niche product. Last week, ARK Investment Management challenges these assumptions, particularly in regards to Tesla’s Cybertruck.
ARK Investment Management’s analysis suggests that the skepticism surrounding the Cybertruck represents a significant blind spot in the automotive industry. Traditional automakers, which usually fund the development and sales of unprofitable EVs with profits derived from their gas-powered truck sales, could face considerable disruption if the Cybertruck becomes a hit.
In its inaugural year, 2014, ARK noted the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecast: long range electric vehicles would barely feature in the US market by 2040. However, in stark contrast, EVs represented over 5% of the US market share last year.
Consequently, the EIA has continually increased its projections, now predicting that EVs will account for approximately 14% of the market by 2040. ARK’s research suggests even greater growth, with global EV market share potentially exceeding 70% by 2027.
The EIA anticipates that trucks will comprise 69% of all US vehicles by 2050, yet believes that electric trucks will make up no more than 10% of that total. ARK strongly disagrees with this prediction, citing existing reservations for the Cybertruck, which have already reached 1.5 million.
Google Trends data also indicates significant mainstream interest in the Cybertruck. On April 2, 2023, search volume for the Cybertruck exceeded that of the Tesla Model Y, seemingly catalyzed by Elon Musk’s tweet about his walkthrough of the Cybertruck production line. Importantly, the highest search volume originated from areas traditionally known for their love of trucks, implying a potential market ready for the EV switch.
Despite the industry’s hesitance to forecast such dramatic growth in the EV market, ARK stresses that ignoring the potential impact of the Cybertruck could be detrimental for traditional automakers. As such, they call for a reevaluation of predictions and an acknowledgment of the impending revolution in the EV industry, led by innovative products like Tesla’s Cybertruck.
Tesla is set to start production of its Cybertruck at Giga Texas soon, with a delivery event coming later this year for first deliveries. But ramp-up to mass production will likely take place by next year. That long list of Tesla Cybertruck reservations will take a while for Tesla to get through, as there’s high demand for the truck of the future.
