Anthropic Reportedly Won’t Extend SpaceX Compute Deal Past Mid-2027

Anthropic reportedly told sell-side analysts that it will not extend its SpaceX compute contract beyond the middle of 2027, according to meeting notes shared on X.

The notes were posted Wednesday by Jukan (@jukan05), who said they reflected remarks Anthropic made in a meeting with sell-side analysts. Neither Anthropic nor SpaceX has confirmed the comments.

Those remarks, if accurate, would match flexibility already written into Anthropic’s IPO filing. The company agreed to spend up to $120.5 billion on SpaceX compute through 2029, or about $3.1 billion a month once all contracted capacity is delivered, which it expected in December 2026. The initial non-cancelable periods end in January 2027 and March 2027. After that, either side can terminate with 90 days’ written notice, so the $120.5 billion figure is a ceiling rather than guaranteed revenue.

An unnamed client labeled Customer B accounted for 34.5% of SpaceX’s third-quarter revenue, all of it in the Super Intelligence segment, and that customer has reportedly been identified as Anthropic.

The same analyst notes first said developing Opus 5.5 cost more than $10 billion. Jukan later posted a correction, saying the $10 billion was reportedly spent training the entire Claude 5.5 model family, including Opus 5.5. He also said that family includes Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5. Anthropic has not disclosed a training cost in its public materials on the 5.5 models.

That 90-day exit had already drawn attention over the weekend. On the November 7 episode of All-In, Chamath Palihapitiya said that if data-center supply tightened, SpaceX could end the Anthropic deal on 90 days’ notice and reprice the compute at the spot rate. “So whatever revenue you see on SpaceX’s balance sheet from Anth could 2 to 3X,” he said, “and Anth would have no choice except to immediately capitulate and take the higher price.”

In a follow-up post on Sunday, Palihapitiya wrote that “odds will go up with every data center delay” if tight supply lifted spot prices by 50% or more and a seller of powered compute had a 90-day exit. The filing allows that cancellation only after the early-2027 periods end. Elon Musk has separately warned that SpaceX revenue could fall if compute becomes plentiful and cheap.

The comments came after Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in the November 3 midterms, Reuters reported. Data centers were already in the spotlight. Voters in 10 states backed restrictions or rejected local data-center proposals, Reuters later reported. After the election, Sen. Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with Democrats, wrote “National data center moratorium now,” and Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa had said she would pause new data-center approvals until the legislature could pass protective laws, CNBC reported.

Jukan is a semiconductor analyst at the research firm Citrini Research, which lists the @jukan05 account as his. His X profile bio is simply @citrini, and the account had about 225,000 followers as of Wednesday morning.

He typically posts English summaries of semiconductor and AI supply-chain notes, including Korean industry reports and sell-side research. There is no independent public record showing how often those notes later prove right or wrong, and these particular comments cannot be independently verified.

A decision not to extend the deal would not, by itself, strand the hardware. SpaceX has said these contracts include early outs so it can take capacity back for its own Grok models, and it could try to rent any freed capacity to other customers. The filings already made clear the 2029 total was never locked in. What’s new is the reported statement of intent.