Barclays Analyst Sees Tesla Hitting $450 as SpaceX Merger Talk Builds

Image: SpaceX

Barclays analyst Dan Levy upgraded Tesla to Overweight from Equal Weight on Monday and raised his price target to $450 from $370, betting that a possible combination with SpaceX, which shareholders are already pressing the board to fast-track, will lift the stock.

In a note to clients quoted by CNBC, Levy wrote that “with a combination heavily expected, and with expectation for some premium to TSLA stock, we believe this should drive upside for the stock.” The new target points to about 21% upside from Friday’s close, and shares were up roughly 2% in premarket trading.

Levy made it clear the bull case doesn’t rest on a deal alone. He expects Tesla’s auto business to grow this year after two years of declines, with more upside in 2027 from demand tied to Full Self-Driving (Supervised) and rising exports from Giga Shanghai.

Other points in the note include:

• FSD adoption above 75% on new North American deliveries in the third quarter, a figure Tesla shared with its Q3 results
• An energy business that is “nearly sold out for 2027,” as Tesla said about Megapack last week, which Barclays thinks could support shipment growth of more than 50%
• A “sharp inflection in Robotaxi miles driven” in recent weeks, which gives Levy more confidence Tesla can compete with Waymo

Tesla’s first Robotaxi Safety Report shows how fast those miles are adding up, counting more than 3.1 million miles with no safety monitor on board across Texas and Florida through October 18.

On the merger itself, Elon Musk said on SpaceX’s earnings call last week that both companies have formed special committees to study a combination, and he has called the idea a “good idea.” Nothing has been announced yet, and any deal would need a shareholder vote.

Is a SpaceX merger the main reason to own Tesla stock for you, or is the core business strong enough on its own?