Image: SpaceX
RBC Capital Markets is modeling a hypothetical SpaceX purchase of Tesla at $480 a share, which would create a combined company worth about $3.74 trillion.
That’s according to a Monday research note from RBC analyst Tom Narayan. The $480 figure is the same offer price RBC used in July, but SpaceX’s higher valuation has flipped who would own more of the merged business.
In July, Narayan modeled a $3.31 trillion combination with Tesla shareholders holding 54%. The latest note puts SpaceX holders at 52% and Tesla holders at 48%, even though Tesla’s stake is still valued around $1.8 trillion. That shift hands SpaceX investors roughly $422 billion more in implied value. The bank frames the $480 price as about a 30% premium for Tesla investors in an all-stock deal, and it says it has no knowledge of an actual transaction.
RBC’s thesis leans on putting Tesla’s robotics and manufacturing next to SpaceX’s AI and infrastructure plans, including the joint Terafab chip ambitions. None of that is a signed deal. Nobody at Tesla or SpaceX has announced a merger, and there is no SEC filing for one (via Benzinga).
Elon Musk has left the door open without naming terms. At the September All-In Summit, asked why the companies stay separate despite deep collaboration, he called it a great question and said people could “imagine what action one might take when there’s so much close collaboration in so many areas,” as we covered in our All-In write-up. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell has also been non-dismissive in the past, telling CNBC in June a combination “might make Elon’s life a little easier” while stressing day-to-day focus on rockets and Starlink.
Tesla’s own calendar does not treat a merger as imminent. The company’s 2026 annual shareholder meeting is set for December 3, and the definitive proxy has no merger vote on the ballot. SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday, October 20, with Tesla following on Wednesday, October 21.
Would a $480 all-stock SpaceX offer actually get Tesla shareholders on board, or does the rising SpaceX stake make this model less attractive than July’s version?
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