Starship in orbit during Flight 14, its first orbital flight. Credit: SpaceX/X
Elon Musk said on X on Friday that a SpaceX valuation above $1,000 trillion is now among the company’s possible outcomes, a scenario he says he previously didn’t think was possible.
Musk made the comment in a reply at 9:43 a.m. PT, writing that “>$1000T now appears to me to be in the set of possible outcomes, whereas before I had thought it was not.” He added that “the second derivative of that probability vs time is rising fast, albeit from a tiny base.”
Put simply, Musk thinks the odds are still small but are improving at an accelerating pace. The thread grew out of his Thursday afternoon post saying “I see a path to SpaceX being worth orders of magnitude more than the current Earth economy.” When a fan account called that a rare show of confidence, Musk pushed back earlier on Friday: “‘Seeing a path’ is not a statement of extreme confidence that we will achieve that outcome.”
For scale, Nasdaq’s quote page put SpaceX’s market value at about $2.2 trillion on Friday morning, with SPCX shares near $162. That’s up from roughly $1.75 trillion at the $135 IPO price in June. A $1,000 trillion SpaceX would be worth about 450 times that, and roughly eight times the $126 trillion the IMF projects for the entire world’s GDP this year.
SpaceX’s own numbers show where growth is coming from today. In its latest quarterly report, the company posted $7.8 billion in second-quarter revenue, nearly double a year earlier. Its Starlink-driven Connectivity segment brought in $4.3 billion, the AI segment built around Grok added $2.6 billion, and the Space segment contributed $962 million.
Musk’s bigger numbers lean heavily on Starship. SpaceX says Starship’s first orbital flight delivered 26 Starlink V3 satellites, and in August Musk said Starlink could one day bring in over $1 trillion a year. Last month, he called Cathie Wood’s $10 trillion Starship revenue scenario “not impossible.”
Musk has floated the bigger-than-Earth idea before, writing in July that SpaceX “will be worth more than the rest of Earth if we accomplish our goals.” Friday’s reply attaches a number to that thinking.
Friday was also a lockup date for SPCX holders, since under the schedule in SpaceX’s IPO prospectus, up to 328.4 million more shares became eligible for sale on October 9. Musk’s own shares stay locked up until June 2027.
Musk didn’t give a timeline, put a figure on the probability, or explain what changed his mind. He also didn’t say which business would carry SpaceX that far, whether Starlink, Starship, AI or something not yet announced, and none of it is company guidance.
He has been early on numbers that once sounded absurd, and he has also missed plenty of deadlines. For now, his own words are the best summary: the odds are tiny, but in his view they’re moving in one direction.
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