Image: Tesla
Tesla is once again shaking up how it communicates with investors. For the first time, the electric automaker has officially added its company-compiled delivery consensus to its Investor Relations website, providing a transparent look at what Wall Street expects for the final quarter of the year.
This move is a significant step toward transparency. Previously, this consensus data was only available to high-profile investors and select individuals within the Tesla community who would share it privately or via social media. Now, the general public can access these figures directly from the source.
The latest consensus, compiled from estimates provided by firms including Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Baird, Wolfe, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, HSBC, William Blair, and more, suggests that analysts expect Tesla to deliver 422,850 vehicles in Q4 2025. This total includes an estimated 388,002 Model 3 and Model Y deliveries, alongside 34,848 units of all other models.
If these numbers hold true, the 422,850 deliveries would trail the 497,099 vehicles Tesla delivered in Q3 2025, which stands as the automaker’s best quarter to date. Despite the projected sequential dip, the company is coming off a massive high after it reported a record $28.1 billion in revenue for Q3 2025.
On the energy side, analysts are looking for a record 13.4 GWh of energy storage deployments for the quarter, bringing the full-year 2025 total to an estimated 45.9 GWh. While providing this data, Tesla makes its stance clear on the third-party figures, stating, “Tesla does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts.”
In comparison, the year-ago quarter, Q4 2024, was a record period for Tesla’s production and deliveries, setting a high bar for year-over-year growth. As 2025 comes to a close, all eyes are on whether Tesla can beat these expectations or if the cooling trend suggested by analysts will manifest in the final report.
Stay tuned for our full coverage of Tesla’s Q4 2025 performance as the official numbers come out in the coming days.
