Image: Tesla
Tesla shares climbed past $450 for the first time this year on Wednesday as Wall Street and prediction markets brace for what could be a record-breaking Q3 delivery report. The company is set to publish its production and delivery results on Thursday, October 2, before markets open.
Analysts on Wall Street are forecasting deliveries of around 443,000 vehicles, while prominent independent tracker TroyTeslike sees Tesla delivering 481,000 units. Prediction market Kalshi is even more bullish, with traders betting the company could report as many as 510,000 deliveries.
Tesla set a new delivery record of 495,570 vehicles in Q4 2024 — surpassing that would be a major milestone for the company. At the time of writing, Tesla stock is trading at about $459, just shy of its all-time high of $488.54. Strong deliveries could push shares past that level, with bullish sentiment already driving momentum.
Tesla enjoyed a solid third quarter across its three biggest markets. In China, sales began rebounding in August, thanks in part to the launch of the market-exclusive six-seat Model Y L. The company capped the quarter with its strongest week yet, logging 19,300 insurance registrations in the country from September 22-28.
In Europe, registrations rose in France and Denmark for the first time this year, while growth in Norway and Spain continued. As for the U.S., the September 30 expiry of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit spurred a rush of last-minute orders.
Looking forward, Tesla’s upcoming lower-cost Model Y Standard, recently spotted in website code with a starting price of $39,990, could help offset the loss of that subsidy and expand demand in North America. With real-world testing already underway in California, the new Model Y variant is expected to enter full-scale production in Q4.
Investors will be watching closely tomorrow morning, as Tesla’s Q3 results could determine whether the company sets a new delivery record — and whether its stock finally breaks through to a fresh all-time high. Stay tuned for official Q3 production and delivery numbers from Tesla when the company releases them.
