Tesla’s Long-Term Forecast Just Got a Lot Bigger. Analysts See 3 Million Deliveries by 2030.

Tesla just published its latest analyst delivery consensus, citing various analysts.

According to the company’s own compiled consensus of 23 sell-side analysts, Tesla is expected to deliver 365,645 vehicles in Q1 2026. That’s down from the 418,227 vehicles Tesla actually delivered in Q4 2025, a drop of roughly 52,600 units quarter over quarter.

The breakdown shows Model 3 and Model Y are expected to make up 351,179 of that total, with all other models (Cybertruck and beyond) accounting for the remaining 13,946. The median estimate across analysts lands close to the consensus figure, at 363,371, with a standard deviation of 25,941, meaning there’s some real spread in how confident analysts are about the exact number.

Zooming out, the consensus shows analysts expecting Tesla’s growth to ramp up significantly over the next several years. Full-year 2026 deliveries are pegged at 1,689,691, climbing to 1,880,496 in 2027, 2,128,187 in 2028, and eventually crossing the 3 million mark by 2030 at 3,032,000.

The “all other models” category, which captures Cybertruck and future vehicles, is expected to grow from a tiny sliver of total deliveries today to 570,590 units by 2030, suggesting analysts expect Tesla’s lineup beyond Model 3/Y to matter a lot more by the end of the decade.

The consensus also tracks energy storage deployments, which are expected to climb from 14.4 GWh in Q1 2026 to 166.1 GWh by 2030, more than an 11-fold increase.

Tesla notes the consensus is compiled from analysts at firms including Daiwa, DB, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Mizuho, BofA, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPM, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair, and the company doesn’t endorse any individual analyst’s estimates or conclusions.

Tesla is expected to report its actual Q1 2026 delivery numbers in the coming weeks.