Courtesy of Tesla, Inc.
Tesla wrapped up the final week of Q3 2025 in China with its strongest performance of the quarter, logging 19,300 insurance registrations between September 22–28. That’s an 11.6% increase from the 17,300 units recorded the previous week, according to data compiled by independent dealers in China’s auto industry and reported by Investor’s Business Daily.
The end-of-quarter push in China gave Tesla a much-needed boost as the company prepares to announce global Q3 delivery figures later this week. Analysts polled by FactSet expect deliveries to come in at around 447,750 vehicles, up 16.6% from Q2 but down 3.3% compared to Q3 2024. Some more recent forecasts have turned bullish, projecting between 470,000 and 495,000 deliveries, with prediction markets even eyeing a record 509,000. Tesla achieved a new delivery record of 495,570 units in the same quarter last year.
Tesla sales in China have been trending upward since the late-August debut of the three-row, six-seat Model Y L. Deliveries of the longer wheelbase variant officially began in early September, providing an incremental lift. August sales had already rebounded 40% from July’s numbers, signaling renewed momentum in the market.
Overall, Tesla’s China insurance registrations for Q3 climbed 26.9% compared to Q2, but still fell 8.7% year-over-year. Year-to-date registrations are down 6.4%. While local rivals like BYD, Xpeng, and Xiaomi continue to intensify competition in the Chinese EV market, Tesla remains focused on scaling its output and drawing interest with new vehicle variants.
Globally, Tesla’s Q3 delivery numbers are leaning heavily on the September 30 expiration of the $7,500 U.S. federal EV tax credit, which has pulled forward demand from American buyers. Customers who placed orders before the deadline can still qualify for the incentive, even if their deliveries occur later. CEO Elon Musk has cautioned, however, that Tesla will likely face “rough” quarters ahead as U.S. demand softens in the absence of tax credits.
Stay tuned for official Q3 production and delivery numbers from Tesla when the company shares them on Thursday, October 2.
