The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) has released its California Auto Outlook for the first half of 2024, presenting a detailed analysis of new vehicle registrations and sales projections for the year.
The report, based on data from Experian Automotive, highlights a slight overall decline in California’s new light vehicle registrations by 0.7 percent year-to-date (YTD), totaling 892,363. Despite this decline, the state is expected to reach 1.8 million new vehicle registrations by year-end, amid challenges posed by higher interest rates and inflation.
Tesla’s performance in California continues to show a downward trend, with registrations dropping by 17 percent YTD compared to last year. This marks the third consecutive quarter of registration declines for Tesla, with decreases of 24.1 percent in Q2 2024, 7.8 percent in Q1 2024, and 9.8 percent in Q4 2023.
The Tesla Model Y remains the top-selling car in the state and also the top-selling EV (69,810 registrations to date in 2024). The Model Y again topped Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V sales, which is impressive.
The second best-selling EV is Tesla’s Model 3 with 21,050 registrations to date in 2024.
Contrasting Tesla’s performance, traditional brands such as Toyota, Hyundai, and Ford have experienced significant growth. Toyota’s battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations rose by 108.1 percent, and Hyundai’s BEV registrations increased by 65.7 percent. The Hyundai Ioniq 5 has surpassed Tesla’s Model X to become the third best-selling EV in California YTD, with 7,191 registrations. Ford’s BEV sales rose by 26.4 percent, with the Mustang Mach-E becoming the fifth most-sold EV YTD.
David Simpson, CNCDA Chairman and owner of multiple dealerships, commented on the market dynamics, stating, “It’s an exciting time to be a franchised car dealer in California. With new competitive EV models and the latest ICE options, we’re able to meet diverse customers’ needs and provide the support they want from their local dealership.”
Toyota remains the top brand in California, with 150,964 registrations and a 16.9 percent market share, a 2.1 point increase YTD from 2023. BEVs account for 21.4 percent of sales YTD in California, which leads the nation in BEV registrations, with 33 percent of nationwide BEV sales occurring in the state. The U.S. BEV market share stands at 7.5 percent YTD.
After six months of decline, California’s BEV market share rose to 21.9 percent from 20.9 percent last quarter. Hybrid registrations increased to 13.2 percent, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) market share remained steady at 3.4 percent. Combined sales of BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles account for 38 percent of the market share, while internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles represent 62 percent of registrations.
Franchised new car and truck dealers in California account for over 67 percent of sales for all alternative powertrain types, indicating strong consumer confidence in local dealerships and established brands. BEV sales by franchised dealerships surged by 27 percent, while direct sellers like Tesla and Rivian saw a 12.3 percent drop.
Northern California’s BEV market share was 24.9 percent in the first half of 2024, while Southern California’s share was 22.1 percent. Light vehicle registrations declined by 3.3 percent in Northern California and by 0.1 percent in Southern California. The Bay Area posted a 3.2 percent decline, LA and Orange Counties increased slightly by 0.1 percent, and San Diego County’s sales increased by 1.6 percent YTD.
Tesla remains the second best-selling brand in California with 102,106 registrations YTD, but its market share has dipped by 2.3 points from last year. In contrast, brands like Rivian, Dodge, Lexus, Lincoln, and Buick have improved their registrations by more than 10 percent this year.
