Tesla Will Drive Most Passenger Miles on Earth, Musk Predicts

Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk predicted on Tesla’s Q3 2026 earnings call on October 21 that Tesla will eventually handle most of the world’s passenger miles, but he added a caveat about governments that may want to protect their own car industries.

The comment came after an analyst said Tesla appears to be pricing its Robotaxi service below rideshare companies and other robotaxi operators in most markets, and asked whether that is a long-term plan to gain market share. Chief financial officer Vaibhav Taneja said the two models have different costs. “Remember, when you are comparing us with rideshare, which has a driver in there, and we do not. Plus, we are manufacturing the car ourselves, so our cost basis overall is different,” he said, adding that “our goal is to take over any kind of transportation.”

Musk followed right after with his prediction. “Unless we are stopped by governments, which is certainly a possibility, if they are trying to protect a domestic industry. I think Tesla will end up doing a majority of all passenger miles on Earth in any country where it is allowed to operate freely,” he said. “You can come back and look at this prediction, but I feel confident about this prediction.”

Taneja had made a similar point in his opening remarks, saying Tesla plans to keep adding vehicle types beyond the Cybercab “to address the terrestrial transportation needs of the total population.” He continued, “I’d like to stress that what we are trying to do is literally take over every part of terrestrial transportation.” He added that Tesla is “starting with getting people from one place to the other, but we want to basically own this transportation of any kind on Earth.”

Neither executive named a country, government or competitor, and Tesla did not share any passenger mile targets or a timeline for the prediction. Rideshare companies and government officials had not responded publicly to the comments as of Thursday.

For now, Tesla’s driverless fleet is small next to the size of the market Musk is describing. Tesla’s first Robotaxi Safety Report counts 3.1 million autonomous miles from January 22 to October 18, 2026, across six cities in Texas and Florida, with Las Vegas, Jacksonville, Phoenix and San Antonio listed as coming soon.

Regulators also have a say in how fast that grows, and this month NHTSA opened a review of claims that Tesla Robotaxis speed in active school zones, a defect petition covering about 1,000 Model Y and Cybercab vehicles. Opening a petition is an early step and is not a recall, and the agency’s file lists no crashes or injuries.

Competition is also spreading outside the US, where Waymo plans to bring its driverless ride-hailing service to Toronto, its first Canadian city, with first riders targeted for 2028, as we covered in our story on Waymo’s Toronto plans.

Do you think Tesla will be allowed to operate Robotaxi freely in most countries?