Tesla CEO Elon Musk is tempering expectations around the company’s two most ambitious products, warning that early production of both the Cybercab robotaxi and the Optimus humanoid robot will be, in his words, “agonizingly slow” before accelerating dramatically over time.
In comments first reported by Reuters, Musk explained that production ramps follow a familiar S-curve and that speed is largely dictated by complexity. For Cybercab and Optimus, that complexity is unusually high. “Almost everything is new,” Musk wrote on X, noting that production speed is inversely proportional to the number of new parts and manufacturing steps involved. The payoff, he added, comes later, when output can become “insanely fast.”
The Cybercab is Tesla’s upcoming two-seat, all-electric autonomous vehicle designed specifically for its Robotaxi network. Tesla has been steadily expanding Cybercab testing on public streets — and even highways — across at least five U.S. states ahead of expected volume production in April. When it does reach production, the Cybercab is expected to ship without a steering wheel, pedals, or even side mirrors, relying entirely on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system.
While early production will be slow, Tesla’s long-term ambitions are anything but modest. Musk has previously said Cybercab will use the company’s new “unboxed” manufacturing process, with an eventual target of producing a vehicle every five seconds once fully ramped. That’s a stark contrast to today’s vehicles like the Model Y, which take roughly half a minute per unit.
Optimus faces a similar trajectory. Tesla is expected to unveil a production-intent prototype in the coming months, with plans for a one-million-unit production line by the end of the year. Musk has repeatedly framed Optimus as central to Tesla’s future, even suggesting the humanoid robot could eventually represent the majority of the company’s valuation.
For investors and observers, the message is clear: the early phase may look underwhelming on paper, but Tesla is betting that patience now unlocks massive scale later.
